Mark Nelson's - Autumn Campaign
 Before you know it summer will be behind us and the National Hunt season will in full swing.
Mark Nelson looks ahead at some of the big chases that kick off the Autumn campaign with a specific look at some of the key trends that can help to highlight winners.
Charlie Hall Chase
Horses with Gold Cup aspirations get their first test in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on the first day of November.
West Country trainers have nicked this race a few times in recent seasons, the mighty See More Business landing the spoils back in 2000 and Our Vic more recently in 2006.
The key stat in recent seasons is that favourites have a poor record with only two managing to oblige in the last eight years. But, aside from one shock in 2003, winners do tend to be near the head of the market with seven of the last eight winners priced at 6/1 or shorter. Not having had a pipe-opener is no barrier to success with the four most recent winners making their seasonal reappearance in the race.
HINTS:
- Avoid the favourite
- Price 6/1 or shorter
- Seasonal debut
Haldon Gold Cup
Exeter’s premier chase usually draws top class horses, Arkle winner Azertyuiop and triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate to name but two.
Aside from Henrietta Knight who has dominated this race in the past, West Country handlers David Pipe, Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls have all tasted success in recent seasons.
Progressive horses are the key here with three of the last four winners aged 8 or younger. Shocks are not uncommon with a favourite only landing the spoils once in the last six years.
Only one winner in the last eight years had the benefit of a previous run and five were rated no less than 157 in the same period.
HINTS:
- Seasonal debut
- West Country trainers
- Official Rating above 156
Badger Ales Trophy
West Country trainers dominate this event, winning six of the last eight renewals between them, the latest being David Pipe’s Abragante.
Favourites obliged on four of the eight occasions but the other four were double-figure prices so outsiders can be considered.
Only one winner in this period was aged above 9 years, with six, seven and eight-year-olds having the best recent record.
The last four winners were making their seasonal bow and, whilst Royal Auclair carried top weight to success in 2004, those carrying less than 11-04 have fared best with an official rating below 134.
HINTS:
- West Country trainers
- Horses aged between 6 & 8 years
- Official rating below 134
Paddy Power Gold Cup
The team at Pond House have to be respected in this event with Martin Pipe saddling five of the last eight winners. Whilst son David has yet to train the winner, he was responsible for the second in 2006.
The majority of winners gained their success on their seasonal return but, those that did have a pipe-opener, finished either first or second prior to this race.
Second-season chasers have a good record, providing three of the last four winners and those rated 150 or below took seven of the last eight renewals.
HINTS:
- Second-season chasers
- Official Rating below 151
- Runners from Pond House
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup
Inexperience is no concern in Newbury’s showpiece chase with six of the last eight winners in only their second season over fences.
Those near the head of the betting also perform well with five of the last eight winners coming from the first three in the market.
A big weight will not stop a class horses succeeding with two of the last three winners, Denman and Trablogan, both denying top weight, having won the Royal & SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival the preceding season.
Horses aged six and seven have taken seven of the last eight renewals.
HINTS:
- Horses aged 6 &7 years
- Those near the head of the betting market
- Second-season chasers
Boylesports.com Gold Cup
This is another race invariably won by an up and coming performer, second-season chasers winning five of the last seven renewals.
Just as key is the poor performance of favourites; not one race during this period was won by those in the top two in the betting market, although five of the seven returned a single figure price.
Most winners during this period had run before and, all bar one, had finished in the first three on their latest outing.
HINTS:
- Second-season chasers
- Single figure price but not favourite
- Placed last time out
King George VI Chase
The highlight on Boxing Day with Ditcheat trainer Paul Nicholls responsible for saddling Kauto Star to victory in the last two seasons.
It often pays to look no further than the favourite with the ‘jolly’ obliging in five of the last six renewals and, aside from a 25/1 shock in 2003, only one winner has started longer than 3/1 in the last eight years.
Runners outside of Britain deserve respect with raiders from France and Ireland successful four times during the same period.
Seven of the eight winners were also successful on their most recent outing.
HINTS:
- Won latest start
- Favourite
- Ignore horses at double-figure odds
Welsh National
December rounds off with what is usually a slog in the mud at Chepstow.
Weight appears key in this marathon event as, aside from Halcon Genelardais in 2006, all seven of the other winners during the last eight years carried 10-09 or less to victory.
Veterans and second-season chasers do equally well as each other and good recent from is important with every winner in the last eight years finishing no worse than fourth on their most recent outing.
Fancied runners also do well with all winners during this period starting at 14/1 or less and, six of the last eight had previously been successful beyond 3m over fences.
HINTS:
- Weight less than 10-10
- In the first four last time out
- 14/1 or shorter
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Competitions